FORECAST RECORD

FEATURED IN

CBS
CNBC
NPR
ABC
bloomberg
wsj
The Journal of Commerce
CNBC
 
Transportation
 
E-Commerce
 
Technology

FORECAST RECORD
Industry Trends Published Source Industry Introduction

70

Amazon will seek to hold down its volume with USPS/UPS/FDX at current level and use ICs for new volume growth going forward

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Months

PUBLISHED SOURCE

December 12, 2017

DC Velocity

Smaller operators' share of Amazon's total volume will rise to about 40%, but major parcel and postal carriers will only see as much volume as they do today

READ ARTICLE

69

Retailers should reduce store operations to offset cost of e commerce fulfillment

SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

February 1, 1999

"E-Commerce’s Mixed Blessing", Traffic World

The increased cost of transportation to the retailers easily will be offset by reduced operating costs as expensive store operations are cut back.

READ ARTICLE

68

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

December 31, 2013

JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

67

Baggage fees by airlines will generate revenue

SJC FORESIGHT: 13 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

66

Free shipping is a new norm for e-retail

SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months

PUBLISHED SOURCE

March 2016

Amazon White Paper released by SJ Consulting

65

The latest tech boom does not equal job creation

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

September 19, 2011

"Job Search Engine", JOC

"The new tech boom does not create jobs comparable to the amount of invested capital."

READ ARTICLE

64

Parcel carriers offer zone one pricing to compete

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 months

PUBLISHED SOURCE

May 4, 2015

"E-Commerce Game Changer", JOC

Parcel carriers should offer zone one pricing to capture store to door deliveries required by brick and mortar retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

63

E-Commerce links consumers to manufacturers across borders, reducing costs

SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

March 2000

"E-Fulfillment Strategies for E-commerce", Air Cargo World

Internet will enable consumers to purchase products directly from manufacturers across borders at much lower cost.

READ ARTICLE

62

Peak surcharges in place to support increased volumes for the holiday season

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

PUBLISHED SOURCE

December 31, 2013

"A Christmas Wish: Solving the Delivery Debacle", JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

61

Google competes with Amazon by offering same-day delivery services

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

PUBLISHED SOURCE

January 23, 2012

"Amazon: Retailer, or Parcel Provider?", JOC

Google may try to extend its reach into retail by offering same-day or next-day distribution services to online retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE
Now
2018

70

Amazon will seek to hold down its volume with USPS/UPS/FDX at current level and use ICs for new volume growth going forward

Published Source

December 12, 2017

DC Velocity

Smaller operators' share of Amazon's total volume will rise to about 40%, but major parcel and postal carriers will only see as much volume as they do today

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 28, 2018

WSJ

Online giant says it has to build out its own services to handle the surging number of online orders that UPS, FedEx and Postal Service can’t

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Months
2017

69

Retailers should reduce store operations to offset cost of e-commerce fulfillment

Published Source

February 1, 1999

"E-Commerce’s Mixed Blessing", Traffic World

The increased cost of transportation to the retailers easily will be offset by reduced operating costs as expensive store operations are cut back.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 10, 2017

WSJ

Wal-Mart will open fewer stores and deepen cost-cutting efforts to free up cash for e-commerce services.

SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Years

68

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges

Published Source

December 31, 2013

JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 19, 2017

UPS

UPS announces peak surcharges for all customers after announcing its plans to do so in February 2015

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

67

Baggage fees by airlines will generate revenue

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Industry Introduction

March 29, 2017

WSJ

"Baggage fees have funded investment in technology and baggage-handling equipment."

SJC FORESIGHT: 13 Years

66

Free shipping is a new norm for e-retail

Published Source

March 2016

Amazon White Paper released by SJ Consulting

Industry Introduction

February 2, 2017

Marc Lore, Walmart E-Commerce Head

"In today’s world of e-commerce, two-day shipping is table stakes…it no longer makes sense to charge for it."

SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months
2016

65

The latest tech boom does not equal job creation

Published Source

September 19, 2011

"Job Search Engine", JOC

"The new tech boom does not create jobs comparable to the amount of invested capital."

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 13, 2016

"Tech Boom Creates Too Few Jobs", WSJ

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

64

Parcel carriers offer zone one pricing to compete

Published Source

May 4, 2015

"E-Commerce Game Changer", JOC

Parcel carriers should offer zone one pricing to capture store to door deliveries required by brick and mortar retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 11, 2016

BB&T Conference

UPS announced it offered zone 1 pricing to select shippers during peak 2015 season.

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 months
2015

63

E-Commerce links consumers to manufacturers across borders, reducing costs

Published Source

March 2000

"E-Fulfillment Strategies for E-commerce", Air Cargo World

Internet will enable consumers to purchase products directly from manufacturers across borders at much lower cost.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 24, 2015

WSJ

Borders matter less and less in E-Commerce: a consumer in Chicago bought a necklace from China at 1/3 total cost compared to local store.

SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

62

Peak surcharges in place to support increased volumes for the holiday season

Published Source

December 31, 2013

"A Christmas Wish: Solving the Delivery Debacle", JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 3, 2015

UPS 4Q 2014 Earnings Call

UPS will implement peak season surcharges in 2015 

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year
2013

61

Google competes with Amazon by offering same-day delivery services

Published Source

January 23, 2012

"Amazon: Retailer, or Parcel Provider?", JOC

Google may try to extend its reach into retail by offering same-day or next-day distribution services to online retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 28, 2013

LA Times

Google testing same-day delivery service.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

60

Velocity Express took costly risks leading to acquisition

Published Source

October 2007

NTLA Conference Presentation

Velocity Express venture into regional parcel business is a risky strategy with negative implications.

Industry Introduction

February 2013

"TransForce Acquires Velocity Express", JOC

Velocity is sold to Transforce/Dynamex after incurring huge losses

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years
2012

59

Online orders can use same-day/next-day delivery if fulfilled locally

Published Source

March 2000

ShipEgus Prospectus

Brick and Mortar retailers can offer same/next day delivery for online orders if fulfilled from local stores

Industry Introduction

October 2012

Macy's, ToysRus, Walmart

Macy's, ToysRus, Walmart testing this concept in select markets

SJC FORESIGHT: 12 Years
2011

58

James Welch appointed new YRC CEO

Published Source

July 4, 2011

"Yes YRC Can Be Saved", JOC

James Welch is the most suitable candidate to replace retiring YRCW CEO, Bill Zollars.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

July 22, 2011

YRC Worldwide

James Welch Named CEO of YRC Worldwide

SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Days
2010

57

Carry-on baggage fees result in lower fares

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Separating charges for check-in & carry-on bags from passengers fare will result in lower passenger fares.

Industry Introduction

October 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines passengers fares are lower than other airlines & even total fares with baggage fees included are lower.

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Years

56

FedEx will merge Freight & National LTL into one network

Published Source

April 2009

Client Presentations

FedEx will combine Freight and National LTL into one network to handle regional and long haul service and announce by Dec 2010.

Industry Introduction

September 2010

FedEx

FedEx announced merger of FedEx Freight and National LTL effective January 2011.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

55

Airline fees for carry-on bags should be higher than for check-in bags

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Industry Introduction

August 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines passengers charges $5 more for carry-on bags than for check-in bags.

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years

54

Per-Bag fee limits carry-on baggage

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Implementing a per-bag fee to all bags could help limit overall carry-on items.

Industry Introduction

April 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines announced plans to charge for carry-on bags that do not fit under the seat.

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years
2009

53

Consumer loyalty will shift from the manufacturer to the provider

Published Source

March 2000

Air Cargo World

Consumer loyalty will shift from the manufacturer of the product to the provider/ enabler (Amazon).

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 23, 2009

WSJ

"Amazon may be benefiting more than other e-commerce sites, as consumer habits shift towards spending more time at a smaller set of websites"

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 Years

52

Separate baggage fees improve baggage service

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

As airlines generate separate baggage fees, fliers will benefit from improved baggage service.

Industry Introduction

September 30, 2009

WSJ

Mishandled baggage complaints drop by 21% in July 2009 versus July 2008.

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

51

YRC Rebranding will enhance regional carriers’ identity

Published Source

May 2008

Traffic World

YRC can enhance regional carriers' identity via re-branding as YRC Holland, Reddaway, and New Penn.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 2009

YRC

YRC Launches yrcregional.com for three regional affiliates and drops USF name.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

50

One unifying voice needed to protect customer & lawmaker interests

Published Source

October 17, 2007

NTLA Industry Presenttion

There is a need for the industry to have one voice to protect interest with lawmakers & customers.

Industry Introduction

July 24, 2009

MCAA

MCAA and NTLA unify under MCAA & announce joint fall meeting. "We create a stronger voice for the same-day delivery industry," says MCAA President Michael Gualtieri.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

49

Changing the name “Courier” to “Same-Day” for clarity

Published Source

October 20, 2006

NTLA Industry Presentation

Changing the term from "Courier" to "Same-Day" will better portray industry's service and value.

Industry Introduction

February 2009

Dynamex

Dynamex Presentation at the 2009 BB&T Conference

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

48

YRC may integrate Yellow & Roadway under YRC National

Published Source

June 5, 2006

Transport Topics

"YRC may integrate Yellow and Roadway networks into one longhaul operation branded as YRC National, and bring all regional operating units...under one operating company."

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

January 2009

YRC Worldwide

YRC brand name introduced for integrated Yellow/Roadway network

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years
2008

47

Airline baggage option to ship via parcel carriers

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Airlines should provide the option to ship bags via parcel carriers to by-pass airport security and enhance airline profitability.

Industry Introduction

October 2008

United Airlines

United Airlines has partnered with FedEx to offer baggage service for a fee.

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

46

Check-in/Security lines move faster with less passenger carry-ons

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

As passengers gain financially by leaving unnecessary items at home, check-in/security lines will move faster.

Industry Introduction

September 9, 2008

WSJ

Complaints to TSA about problems at screening checkpoints or baggage damage have declined by 7% in June/July, versus complaints issued in 2007.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

45

Charging for airline baggage will result in fewer bags overall

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Charges for bags will encourage passengers to be more judicious with items carried and thus fewer bags.

Industry Introduction

September 2008

American Airlines

American Airlines reports customers checked 1 million fewer bags than in July of 2007

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

44

UPS agrees to unionize its LTL workers

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

UPS will cooperate with Teamsters on unionization of its LTL workers to reach an early and favorable contract for its parcel operations.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 2008

UPS Freight

Teamsters has signed up 11,100 of 15,000 UPS Freight workers to join the union.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

43

Airlines should separate baggage charges from airfare

Published Source

October 2003

ABC TV, White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Airlines should un-bundle airfare with a charge for bags transported.

Industry Introduction

May 2008

American Airlines

American Airlines introduces $15 fee for first checked bag

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

42

DHL should partner with USPS for last-mile deliveries

Published Source

2005

Client Report

DHL should outsource last mile delivery of low density remote zip codes to USPS.

Industry Introduction

May 2008

DHL

DHL announces partnership with USPS for last mile delivery as part of its restructuring plan.

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

41

The fewer airlines, the better

Published Source

January 2007

"Morning Call", CNBC TV

There are too many airlines - mergers are needed.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2008-2011

Delta & Northwest merge (2008), United & Continental merge (2010), Southwest & Airtran merger (2011)

SJC FORESIGHT: 1-4 Years
2007

40

YRC will control the direction of the NMFA

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

YRC will control the direction of the NMFA as if it was a YRC Freight Agreement.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

December 2007 - January 2008

YRC Worldwide

YRC agreement with Teamsters in Dec 2007 and ABF acceptance of it in Jan 2008.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

39

UPS appoints new CEO

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

UPS to announce a new CEO shortly after turning 100.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 15, 2007

UPS Press Release

"On October 15, 2007, United Parcel Service, Inc. (“UPS”) announced that Michael L. Eskew will retire as UPS’s chief executive officer and chairman of the board effective January 1, 2008."

SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months

38

Teamsters & UPS could agree on new 5-year contract

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

A new 5-year contract could be agreed upon between UPS & Teamsters by August 28, 2007

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 30, 2007

Agreement reached between Teamsters & UPS on September 30, 2007

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 Months

37

YRC Worldwide should combine Yellow & Roadway linehaul/terminals

Published Source

May 2005

Client Presentation

YRCW should combine Yellow & Roadway linehaul/terminals for operational cost savings.

Industry Introduction

February 15, 2007

BB&T 2007 Conference

YRC CEO comments at BB&T Conference regarding combining Yellow & Roadway linehaul/terminals

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year
2006

36

FedEx will expand its transportation services

Published Source

May 2003

Industry Presentation

FedEx will expand its transportation services.

Industry Introduction

June 2006

FedEx

FedEx expands its LTL operation with Watkins acquisition.

SJC FORESIGHT:

35

UPS & USPS should collaborate, not combative

Published Source

May 2003

Client Presentation

Industry Introduction

June 2006

UPS

UPS gets $100 million a year contract to fly USPS mail.

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years
2004

34

Battle for retail customers heats up

Published Source

May 2003

Industry Presentation

Competition for retail customers is intensifying.

Industry Introduction

Late 2003 - Early 2004

FedEx acquires Kinko's for $2.4 billion, Dec. 2003; DHL launches a Preferred Program with 1,100 AMPC stores, Nov. 2004

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

33

Proactive notification on service failure in the parcel industry

Published Source

2000

ShipMatrix Alert

Industry Introduction

2004

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years
2003

32

Changes in FedEx/Kinko’s relationship for retail market penetration

Published Source

June 2002

Client Document

Industry Introduction

December 2003

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

31

Surcharge for commercial ground services to rural zips

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

November 2003

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

30

Yellow will take the #3 spot on the Big 3 Transportation List behind UPS and FedEx

Published Source

April 29, 1997

Client Presentation

Industry Introduction

July 8, 2003

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

29

DHL will offer one-stop shopping for comprehensive global logistics services

Published Source

February 1999

Client Report

Industry Introduction

March 2003

DPWN STAR Program

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

28

DHL will acquire Airborne for stronger presence in US domestic parcel market

Published Source

February 1999

Client Report

Industry Introduction

2003

DHL Express

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

27

Parcel rates increase to offset labor costs

Published Source

July 17, 2002

WSJ

UPS parcel rates will increase by larger amounts to offset higher labor costs of 2002 Teamster contract.

Industry Introduction

2003- 2006

2003-2006 rates +4.7% vs. 4.1% per yr for 1999-2002. while Domestic Av. Rev/ Pkg. +3.8% vs. 2.5% per yr

SJC FORESIGHT: 1-4 Years

26

Recognizing the importance of shipment visibility in the parcel industry

Published Source

1999

ShipMatrix Visibility Tools

Industry Introduction

2002

Quantum View & Insight

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years
2002

25

Amazon opportunity lies in becoming the “Wal-Mart” of cyberspace

Published Source

March 2000

Air Cargo World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

November 2002

WSJ

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

24

UPS should guarantee residential ground deliveries

Published Source

January 2000

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

August 2002

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

23

UPS will unveil its retail strategy involving Mail Boxes, Etc. after Teamsters contract is approved

Published Source

January 2002

Client Report

Industry Introduction

August 2002

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Months

22

UPS/Teamsters will reach agreement by mid-July

Published Source

January 2002

Client & Media Communication

Industry Introduction

July 15, 2002

UPS/Teamsters

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Months
2001

21

Benefits of co-locating home delivery centers with B2B service facility

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 2001

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

20

More LTL shipments will shift to parcel carriers

Published Source

July 15, 1996

Transport Topics

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 2001

Morgan Stanley Survey

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

19

Kozmo.com’s business model will not survive

Published Source

March 2000

E-Biz Conference

Industry Introduction

April 2001

Kozmo.com closes

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

18

Surcharge for commercial express services to rural zips

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 2001

FedEx

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years
2000

17

Deutsche Post will buy controlling interest in DHL International Ltd

Published Source

February 1999

Client Report

Industry Introduction

September 2000

Deutsche Post buys controlling interest in DHL International, Ltd.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

16

Guaranteed on-time arrival for passenger airline service

Published Source

November 1998

Patent Application

Industry Introduction

May 2000

BizTravel.com

Passenger airline service is guaranteed for on-time arrival.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

15

Evening delivery times for residential customers

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 2000

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

14

Weekend service for residential deliveries by private parcel carriers

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 2000

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

13

Need to guarantee Ground residential parcel service

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 2000

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

12

Importance of logistics/ fulfillment to e-tailing

Published Source

March 1999

Air Cargo World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

January 2000

SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months

11

Need to integrate marketing/ technology of FedEx/RPS

Published Source

October 1997

KDKA-TV

Interview with KDKA-TV.

Industry Introduction

January 2000

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years
1999

10

UPS will become a publicly traded company prior to December 1999

Published Source

August 1998

Client Report

Industry Introduction

July 1999

SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months

9

Automatic refund for guaranteed LTL service failure

Published Source

March 1998

Client Report

Industry Introduction

February 1999

SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months

8

Surcharge for residential addresses to rural zip codes

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 1999

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT:

7

Need for DSCF/DDU rates for Parcel Post by USPS

Published Source

1991

RPS Memo

Industry Introduction

January 1999

SJC FORESIGHT: 8 Years
1998

6

Need to guarantee ground parcel service

Published Source

1988 & 1997

RPS Memo (1988) & Traffic World (1997)

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 1998

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Years (1988) & 1 Year (1997)

5

Extended transit time for delivery of ground parcels to rural zip codes

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

1998

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

4

Push towards greater increases in accessorial charges by parcel carriers

Published Source

July 1996

Transport Topics

Industry Introduction

1998

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

3

Need for LTL carriers to offer guarantee on STD services

Published Source

1996

Analysts' Conference Calls

Industry Introduction

1998

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years
1997

2

Viking Freight – Virtual Region strategy shortcomings

Published Source

January 1996

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

April 1997

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 Months
1996

1

FedEx is likely to experience more intense competition through bundling of services

Published Source

June 19, 1993

Letter to Client

Industry Introduction

1996

UPS

UPS Express & Ground Parcel bundling

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years