FORECAST RECORD

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FORECAST RECORD
Industry Trends Published Source Industry Introduction

72

Retailers should reduce store operations to offset cost of e commerce fulfillment

SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

February 1, 1999

"E-Commerce’s Mixed Blessing", Traffic World

The increased cost of transportation to the retailers easily will be offset by reduced operating costs as expensive store operations are cut back.

READ ARTICLE

71

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

December 31, 2013

JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

70

Baggage fees by airlines will generate revenue

SJC FORESIGHT: 13 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

69

Free shipping is a new norm for e-retail

SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months

PUBLISHED SOURCE

March 2016

Amazon White Paper released by SJ Consulting

68

The latest tech boom does not equal job creation

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

September 19, 2011

"Job Search Engine", JOC

"The new tech boom does not create jobs comparable to the amount of invested capital."

READ ARTICLE

67

LTL carriers should reduce waiver for shipper reported weight v. actual weight of shipment from 100 pounds to 5 pounds

PUBLISHED SOURCE

Nov 01, 2010

Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

66

Parcel carriers offer zone one pricing to compete

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 months

PUBLISHED SOURCE

May 4, 2015

"E-Commerce Game Changer", JOC

Parcel carriers should offer zone one pricing to capture store to door deliveries required by brick and mortar retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

65

Customized last mile delivery from access point

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

2015

Press RSA Members (Aug 2015)

READ ARTICLE

64

E-Commerce links consumers to manufacturers across borders, reducing costs

SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

March 2000

"E-Fulfillment Strategies for E-commerce", Air Cargo World

Internet will enable consumers to purchase products directly from manufacturers across borders at much lower cost.

READ ARTICLE

63

B2B operating model used for B2C will lose ground to model designed for B2C

SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

February 1999

"E-commerce’s Mixed Blessings", Traffic World

READ ARTICLE
Now
2023

92

Digital brokers unable to disrupt traditional brokers

Published Source

January 2, 2020

Journal of Commerce

SJ predicted that it will take more than being digital to disrupt the brokerage industry

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 19, 2023

Journal of Commerce

Convoy (digital broker) says it will shut down operations, sell off technology amid market downturn

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years, 9 Months

91

Diversion of parcel volume from UPS due to prospect of work stoppage by Teamsters on Aug 1, 2023

Published Source

July 31, 2023

Freightwaves

SJ estimated diversion from Teamsters strike related threat was 5% of ADV of 18.67 million or 933,500 Freightwaves

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

August 8, 2023

UPS Q2, 2023 earnings release

UPS announced that Teamsters strike threat contributed to diversion of 932,000 ADV during Q2 of 2023. (see UPS earnings call transcript/presentation)

READ RELEASE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Week

90

FedEx Express and Ground parcel networks integration will reduce costs by more than $3.33 billion per year (based on FY 2020 financials)

Published Source

April/June 2019

JOC

"Time for FedEx to operate and compete collectively" -Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

April 5, 2023

FedEx Announces planned consolidation of operating companies

Thru Drive, FDX expects to generate $4 billion of permanent cost reductions in FY 2025. (see press release below)

READ PRESS RELEASE
SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years
2022

89

Brick and Mortar Retailers should include local stores to fulfill Online orders for same-day / next-day delivery

Published Source

March 2000

ShipEgis Prospectus

Brick and Mortar retailers can offer same/next day delivery for online orders if fulfilled from local stores

Industry Introduction

December 9, 2022

More Stores Are Doing Fulfillment for Orders Consumers Place Online, WSJ article

Ulta Beauty, Macys, Tillys, Best Buy, Nordstrom are now embracing fulfillment from local brick and mortar stores for faster delivery by being closer to the consumers

SJC FORESIGHT: 22 Years

88

Consumers will take predictable free over costly fast delivery and carriers need to adapt for it

Published Source

May 2018 thru January 2022

Reports for clients in 2020 and 2021, presentations at industry conferences, quotes to reporters and published articles

After Amazon started to promote next and same day free delivery to enhance its two day free delivery, SJC advised clients and presented at conferences that consumers prefer predictability of delivery over speed and would even opt for all deliveries to be made on limited days of a week instead of every day.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

November 10, 2022

WSJ article

Cost-wary Retailers Ease Up On Race for Speedy Delivery

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years

87

Raj Subramaniam will become CEO of FedEx Corp by June 28, 2022

Published Source

March 10, 2022

Conversions with Industry observers and Freightwaves article of March 25, 2022

Soon after Richard Smith’s appointment as CEO of FedEx Express on March 10, 2022, SJ forecasted that Raj Subramaniam would be appointed CEO of FedEx Corp. while remaining President with Fred Smith becoming Executive Chairman by June 28, 2022.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 28, 2022

FedEx Press Release

Raj Subramaniam promoted to CEO and retain President title of FedEx Corp. and Fred Smith to become Executive Chairman as of June 1, 2022

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 weeks

86

Richard Smith will become CEO of FedEx Express in 2022

Published Source

February 2021

Conversions with Clients/observers

Soon after John Smith’s appointment as CEO of FedEx Ground, SJ forecasted that Richard Smith would be appointed CEO of FedEx Express in 2022 ensuring Raj’s promotion to CEO of FedEx Corp. with Fred Smith becoming Executive Chairman.

Industry Introduction

March 10, 2022

FedEx Press Release

Richard Smith promoted to President/CEO of FedEx Express.

SJC FORESIGHT: 13 Months
2021

85

Just deploying digital technology to offer brokerage service in trucking is not enough to disrupt that industry

Published Source

January 2020

"It takes more than being digital to disrupt freight industry ", JOC

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

July 22, 2021

WSJ

Uber Freight acquires Transplace, a traditional broker and freight management firm for $2.25 billion and a huge premium price with a multiple of 22.5 times EBITDA.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 20 Years

84

UPS should bill after delivery to avoid invoicing shippers for manifested but not shipped parcels

Published Source

March 2019

Meeting with UPS executives at SJC/ShipMatrix offices

Industry Introduction

January 2021

Communication with UPS executive

UPS has changed invoicing to be issued after delivery of the parcels which eliminates billing for manifest errors

SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Months
2020

83

E-Commerce will enable manufacturers to reach consumers directly

Published Source

March 1999

"E-Fulfillment Strategies for E-commerce", Air Cargo World

Internet will enable consumers to purchase products directly from manufacturers across borders bypassing retailers.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 2020

JOC

“Manufacturers are going to figure out how to go directly to the consumers more and more”. Arthur L. Valdez, Jr. Executive Vice President, Target Corp.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 20 Years

82

USPS should implement peak pricing for parcel services due to spike in volume from Covid 19 closure of physical retail stores.

Published Source

June and August 12,2020

Bloomberg Radio Interview

“USPS should implement peak period pricing for its parcel services” Bloomberg Radio Interview

LISTEN TO INTERVIEW

Industry Introduction

August 14, 2020

USPS Press Release

USPS will implement a time-limited price increase on all commercial domestic competitive package volume from Oct 18 thru Dec 27, 2020.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 2 months

81

Richard Smith of FedEx will get another promotion within a year

Published Source

August 23, 2019

Daily Memphian

FedEx names Richard Smith, Founder’s son, No. 2 at FedEx Express

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 5, 2020

Daily Memphian

Richard Smith now President of Americas at FedEx Express.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months

80

Indian E commerce model will partner instead of compete with local Kirana stores

Published Source

August 2018

SJC report sponsored by arm

Transformation in the Retail, Logistics and Transportation Industries

READ REPORT

Industry Introduction

May 20, 2020

Wall Street Journal

Reliance Industries via Jio will build Indian e commerce business by partnering with local Kirana store owners.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 21 Months

79

FedEx and UPS should end refund for guaranteed delivery service

Published Source

August 10, 2015

"End the Guarantee", JOC

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 23 and 26, 2020

“FedEx and UPS suspend guaranteed service in response to Service Impact of Covid19”.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years 7 months

78

LTL carriers should end dependance on honor system for pricing of shipments based on shipper provided attributes

Published Source

December 12, 2016

Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2020

Earnings reports from top LTL carriers

Carriers reporting better yield in spite no change in tonnage but due to better discipline in billing for the proper attributes of the shipments

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years

77

FedEx should integrate express and ground parcel network

Published Source

April/June 2019

JOC

“Time for FedEx to operate and compete collectively” Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 7, 2020

FedEx Press Release

FedEx Ground will start to transport and deliver day-definite residential Express shipments.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months
2019

76

Amazon will build its own delivery fleet like JD.com in China

Published Source

March 2018

DC Velocity

JD has 65,000 delivery drivers in China for its e commerce business. According to Jindel, in JD, Amazon sees the kind of company it eventually wants to be.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 19. 2019

WSJ

Amazon to add 100,000 delivery vehicles and building up its delivery fleet to become a force in the shipping industry

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Months

75

FedEx and UPS need to deliver 7 days a week including Sundays

Published Source

January 8, 2018

“Delaying Amazon’s Onslaught” Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 30, 2019

FedEx Press Release (5/30/19) and UPS Press Release (7/23/19)

FedEx and UPS to offer deliveries on Sundays effective January 2020

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 16 months
2018

74

Amazon will seek to hold down its volume with USPS/UPS/FDX at current level and use ICs for new volume growth going forward

Published Source

December 12, 2017

DC Velocity

Smaller operators' share of Amazon's total volume will rise to about 40%, but major parcel and postal carriers will only see as much volume as they do today

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 28, 2018

WSJ

Online giant says it has to build out its own services to handle the surging number of online orders that UPS, FedEx and Postal Service can’t

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Months

73

LTL carriers should embrace more straight trucks for PUD operation to service more under 500 pound shipments which represent +12% of the market and growing at a faster rate with e commerce sales

Published Source

May 14, 2014

Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2018

FMCSA data on trucks in use by LTL carriers

Number of straight trucks in use by LTL carriers is at record high

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years
2017

72

Retailers should reduce store operations to offset cost of e-commerce fulfillment

Published Source

February 1, 1999

"E-Commerce’s Mixed Blessing", Traffic World

The increased cost of transportation to the retailers easily will be offset by reduced operating costs as expensive store operations are cut back.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 10, 2017

WSJ

Wal-Mart will open fewer stores and deepen cost-cutting efforts to free up cash for e-commerce services.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Years

71

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges

Published Source

December 31, 2013

JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 19, 2017

UPS

UPS announces peak surcharges for all customers after announcing its plans to do so in February 2015

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

70

Baggage fees by airlines will generate revenue

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Industry Introduction

March 29, 2017

WSJ

"Baggage fees have funded investment in technology and baggage-handling equipment."

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 13 Years

69

Free shipping is a new norm for e-retail

Published Source

March 2016

Amazon White Paper released by SJ Consulting

Industry Introduction

February 2, 2017

Marc Lore, Walmart E-Commerce Head

"In today’s world of e-commerce, two-day shipping is table stakes…it no longer makes sense to charge for it."

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months
2016

68

The latest tech boom does not equal job creation

Published Source

September 19, 2011

"Job Search Engine", JOC

"The new tech boom does not create jobs comparable to the amount of invested capital."

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 13, 2016

"Tech Boom Creates Too Few Jobs", WSJ

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

67

LTL carriers should reduce waiver for shipper reported weight v. actual weight of shipment from 100 pounds to 5 pounds

Published Source

Nov 01, 2010

Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2016

Discussions with executives at many LTL carriers

Having built-in scales on forklifts on the freight dock and integration of the data captured and enhanced their ability to reduce the waiver of weight to under 10 pounds

SJC FORESIGHT:

66

Parcel carriers offer zone one pricing to compete

Published Source

May 4, 2015

"E-Commerce Game Changer", JOC

Parcel carriers should offer zone one pricing to capture store to door deliveries required by brick and mortar retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 11, 2016

BB&T Conference

UPS announced it offered zone 1 pricing to select shippers during peak 2015 season.

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 months
2015

65

Customized last mile delivery from access point

Published Source

2015

Press RSA Members (Aug 2015)

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2018

FetchPackage.com

FetchPackage.com introduces customized delivery from a drop off point.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

64

E-Commerce links consumers to manufacturers across borders, reducing costs

Published Source

March 2000

"E-Fulfillment Strategies for E-commerce", Air Cargo World

Internet will enable consumers to purchase products directly from manufacturers across borders at much lower cost.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 24, 2015

WSJ

Borders matter less and less in E-Commerce: a consumer in Chicago bought a necklace from China at 1/3 total cost compared to local store.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

63

B2B operating model used for B2C will lose ground to model designed for B2C

Published Source

February 1999

"E-commerce’s Mixed Blessings", Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2015/2021

Traffic World

SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

62

Peak surcharges in place to support increased volumes for the holiday season

Published Source

December 31, 2013

"A Christmas Wish: Solving the Delivery Debacle", JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 3, 2015

UPS 4Q 2014 Earnings Call

UPS will implement peak season surcharges in 2015 

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year
2013

61

Google competes with Amazon by offering same-day delivery services

Published Source

January 23, 2012

"Amazon: Retailer, or Parcel Provider?", JOC

Google may try to extend its reach into retail by offering same-day or next-day distribution services to online retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 28, 2013

LA Times

Google testing same-day delivery service.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

60

Velocity Express took costly risks leading to acquisition

Published Source

October 2007

NTLA Conference Presentation

Velocity Express venture into regional parcel business is a risky strategy with negative implications.

Industry Introduction

February 2013

"TransForce Acquires Velocity Express", JOC

Velocity is sold to Transforce/Dynamex after incurring huge losses

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years
2012

59

Online orders can use same-day/next-day delivery if fulfilled locally

Published Source

March 2000

ShipEgis Prospectus

Brick and Mortar retailers can offer same/next day delivery for online orders if fulfilled from local stores

Industry Introduction

October 2012

Macy's, ToysRus, Walmart

Macy's, ToysRus, Walmart testing this concept in select markets

SJC FORESIGHT: 12 Years
2011

58

James Welch appointed new YRC CEO

Published Source

July 4, 2011

"Yes YRC Can Be Saved", JOC

James Welch is the most suitable candidate to replace retiring YRCW CEO, Bill Zollars.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

July 21, 2011

YRC Worldwide

James Welch Named CEO of YRC Worldwide

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 17 Days
2010

57

Carry-on baggage fees result in lower fares

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Separating charges for check-in & carry-on bags from passengers fare will result in lower passenger fares.

Industry Introduction

October 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines passengers fares are lower than other airlines & even total fares with baggage fees included are lower.

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Years

56

FedEx will merge Freight & National LTL into one network

Published Source

April 2009

Client Presentations

FedEx will combine Freight and National LTL into one network to handle regional and long haul service and announce by Dec 2010.

Industry Introduction

September 2010

FedEx

FedEx announced merger of FedEx Freight and National LTL effective January 2011.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

55

Airline fees for carry-on bags should be higher than for check-in bags

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Industry Introduction

August 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines passengers charges $5 more for carry-on bags than for check-in bags.

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years

54

Per-Bag fee limits carry-on baggage

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Implementing a per-bag fee to all bags could help limit overall carry-on items.

Industry Introduction

April 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines announced plans to charge for carry-on bags that do not fit under the seat.

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years
2009

53

Consumer loyalty will shift from the manufacturer to the provider

Published Source

March 2000

Air Cargo World

Consumer loyalty will shift from the manufacturer of the product to the provider/ enabler (Amazon).

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 23, 2009

WSJ

"Amazon may be benefiting more than other e-commerce sites, as consumer habits shift towards spending more time at a smaller set of websites"

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 9 Years

52

Separate baggage fees improve baggage service

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

As airlines generate separate baggage fees, fliers will benefit from improved baggage service.

Industry Introduction

September 30, 2009

WSJ

Mishandled baggage complaints drop by 21% in July 2009 versus July 2008.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

51

YRC Rebranding will enhance regional carriers’ identity

Published Source

May 2008

Traffic World

YRC can enhance regional carriers' identity via re-branding as YRC Holland, Reddaway, and New Penn.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 2009

YRC

YRC Launches yrcregional.com for three regional affiliates and drops USF name.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

50

One unifying voice needed to protect customer & lawmaker interests

Published Source

October 17, 2007

NTLA Industry Presenttion

There is a need for the industry to have one voice to protect interest with lawmakers & customers.

Industry Introduction

July 24, 2009

MCAA

MCAA and NTLA unify under MCAA & announce joint fall meeting. "We create a stronger voice for the same-day delivery industry," says MCAA President Michael Gualtieri.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

49

Changing the name “Courier” to “Same-Day” for clarity

Published Source

October 20, 2006

NTLA Industry Presentation

Changing the term from "Courier" to "Same-Day" will better portray industry's service and value.

Industry Introduction

February 2009

Dynamex

Dynamex Presentation at the 2009 BB&T Conference

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

48

YRC may integrate Yellow & Roadway under YRC National

Published Source

June 5, 2006

Transport Topics

"YRC may integrate Yellow and Roadway networks into one longhaul operation branded as YRC National, and bring all regional operating units...under one operating company."

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

January 2009

YRC Worldwide

YRC brand name introduced for integrated Yellow/Roadway network

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years
2008

47

Airline baggage option to ship via parcel carriers

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Airlines should provide the option to ship bags via parcel carriers to by-pass airport security and enhance airline profitability.

Industry Introduction

October 2008

United Airlines

United Airlines has partnered with FedEx to offer baggage service for a fee.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

46

Check-in/Security lines move faster with less passenger carry-ons

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

As passengers gain financially by leaving unnecessary items at home, check-in/security lines will move faster.

Industry Introduction

September 9, 2008

WSJ

Complaints to TSA about problems at screening checkpoints or baggage damage have declined by 7% in June/July, versus complaints issued in 2007.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

45

Charging for airline baggage will result in fewer bags overall

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Charges for bags will encourage passengers to be more judicious with items carried and thus fewer bags.

Industry Introduction

September 2008

American Airlines

American Airlines reports customers checked 1 million fewer bags than in July of 2007

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years