FORECAST RECORD

FEATURED IN

CBS
CNBC
NPR
ABC
Reuters
wsj
The Journal of Commerce
CNBC
 
Transportation
 
E-Commerce
 
Technology

FORECAST RECORD
Industry Trends Published Source Industry Introduction

63

B2B operating model used for B2C will lose ground to model designed for B2C

SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

February 1999

"E-commerce’s Mixed Blessings", Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

62

Peak surcharges in place to support increased volumes for the holiday season

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

PUBLISHED SOURCE

December 31, 2013

"A Christmas Wish: Solving the Delivery Debacle", JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

61

Google competes with Amazon by offering same-day delivery services

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

PUBLISHED SOURCE

January 23, 2012

"Amazon: Retailer, or Parcel Provider?", JOC

Google may try to extend its reach into retail by offering same-day or next-day distribution services to online retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

60

Velocity Express took costly risks leading to acquisition

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

October 2007

NTLA Conference Presentation

Velocity Express venture into regional parcel business is a risky strategy with negative implications.

59

Online orders can use same-day/next-day delivery if fulfilled locally

SJC FORESIGHT: 12 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

March 2000

ShipEgis Prospectus

Brick and Mortar retailers can offer same/next day delivery for online orders if fulfilled from local stores

58

James Welch appointed new YRC CEO

SJC FORESIGHT: 17 Days

PUBLISHED SOURCE

July 4, 2011

"Yes YRC Can Be Saved", JOC

James Welch is the most suitable candidate to replace retiring YRCW CEO, Bill Zollars.

READ ARTICLE

57

Carry-on baggage fees result in lower fares

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Separating charges for check-in & carry-on bags from passengers fare will result in lower passenger fares.

56

FedEx will merge Freight & National LTL into one network

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

PUBLISHED SOURCE

April 2009

Client Presentations

FedEx will combine Freight and National LTL into one network to handle regional and long haul service and announce by Dec 2010.

55

Airline fees for carry-on bags should be higher than for check-in bags

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

54

Per-Bag fee limits carry-on baggage

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years

PUBLISHED SOURCE

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Implementing a per-bag fee to all bags could help limit overall carry-on items.

Now
2024

93

FedEx will enhance shareholder value by spinning off Freight

Published Source

November 3, 2021

Journal of Commerce

SJ predicted in an open letter to Fred Smith that he should spin-off Freight for huge shareholder value creation

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 25, 2024

FedEx Q4, FY 2024 earnings release

FedEx mgmt. and BOD are conducting an assessment of the role of Freight in company’s portfolio structure and potential steps to further unlock sustainable shareholder value.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 2 years, 8 months
2023

92

Digital brokers unable to disrupt traditional brokers

Published Source

January 2, 2020

Journal of Commerce

SJ predicted that it will take more than being digital to disrupt the brokerage industry

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 19, 2023

Journal of Commerce

Convoy (digital broker) says it will shut down operations, sell off technology amid market downturn

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years, 9 Months

91

Diversion of parcel volume from UPS due to prospect of work stoppage by Teamsters on Aug 1, 2023

Published Source

July 31, 2023

Freightwaves

SJ estimated diversion from Teamsters strike related threat was 5% of ADV of 18.67 million or 933,500 Freightwaves

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

August 8, 2023

UPS Q2, 2023 earnings release

UPS announced that Teamsters strike threat contributed to diversion of 932,000 ADV during Q2 of 2023. (see UPS earnings call transcript/presentation)

READ RELEASE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Week

90

FedEx Express and Ground parcel networks integration will reduce costs by more than $3.33 billion per year (based on FY 2020 financials)

Published Source

April/June 2019

JOC

"Time for FedEx to operate and compete collectively" -Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

April 5, 2023

FedEx Announces planned consolidation of operating companies

Thru Drive, FDX expects to generate $4 billion of permanent cost reductions in FY 2025. (see press release below)

READ PRESS RELEASE
SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years
2022

89

Brick and Mortar Retailers should include local stores to fulfill Online orders for same-day / next-day delivery

Published Source

March 2000

ShipEgis Prospectus

Brick and Mortar retailers can offer same/next day delivery for online orders if fulfilled from local stores

Industry Introduction

December 9, 2022

More Stores Are Doing Fulfillment for Orders Consumers Place Online, WSJ article

Ulta Beauty, Macys, Tillys, Best Buy, Nordstrom are now embracing fulfillment from local brick and mortar stores for faster delivery by being closer to the consumers

SJC FORESIGHT: 22 Years

88

Consumers will take predictable free over costly fast delivery and carriers need to adapt for it

Published Source

May 2018 thru January 2022

Reports for clients in 2020 and 2021, presentations at industry conferences, quotes to reporters and published articles

After Amazon started to promote next and same day free delivery to enhance its two day free delivery, SJC advised clients and presented at conferences that consumers prefer predictability of delivery over speed and would even opt for all deliveries to be made on limited days of a week instead of every day.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

November 10, 2022

WSJ article

Cost-wary Retailers Ease Up On Race for Speedy Delivery

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years

87

Raj Subramaniam will become CEO of FedEx Corp by June 28, 2022

Published Source

March 10, 2022

Conversions with Industry observers and Freightwaves article of March 25, 2022

Soon after Richard Smith’s appointment as CEO of FedEx Express on March 10, 2022, SJ forecasted that Raj Subramaniam would be appointed CEO of FedEx Corp. while remaining President with Fred Smith becoming Executive Chairman by June 28, 2022.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 28, 2022

FedEx Press Release

Raj Subramaniam promoted to CEO and retain President title of FedEx Corp. and Fred Smith to become Executive Chairman as of June 1, 2022

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 weeks

86

Richard Smith will become CEO of FedEx Express in 2022

Published Source

February 2021

Conversions with Clients/observers

Soon after John Smith’s appointment as CEO of FedEx Ground, SJ forecasted that Richard Smith would be appointed CEO of FedEx Express in 2022 ensuring Raj’s promotion to CEO of FedEx Corp. with Fred Smith becoming Executive Chairman.

Industry Introduction

March 10, 2022

FedEx Press Release

Richard Smith promoted to President/CEO of FedEx Express.

SJC FORESIGHT: 13 Months
2021

85

Just deploying digital technology to offer brokerage service in trucking is not enough to disrupt that industry

Published Source

January 2020

"It takes more than being digital to disrupt freight industry ", JOC

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

July 22, 2021

WSJ

Uber Freight acquires Transplace, a traditional broker and freight management firm for $2.25 billion and a huge premium price with a multiple of 22.5 times EBITDA.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 20 Years

84

UPS should bill after delivery to avoid invoicing shippers for manifested but not shipped parcels

Published Source

March 2019

Meeting with UPS executives at SJC/ShipMatrix offices

Industry Introduction

January 2021

Communication with UPS executive

UPS has changed invoicing to be issued after delivery of the parcels which eliminates billing for manifest errors

SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Months
2020

83

E-Commerce will enable manufacturers to reach consumers directly

Published Source

March 1999

"E-Fulfillment Strategies for E-commerce", Air Cargo World

Internet will enable consumers to purchase products directly from manufacturers across borders bypassing retailers.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 2020

JOC

“Manufacturers are going to figure out how to go directly to the consumers more and more”. Arthur L. Valdez, Jr. Executive Vice President, Target Corp.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 20 Years

82

USPS should implement peak pricing for parcel services due to spike in volume from Covid 19 closure of physical retail stores.

Published Source

June and August 12,2020

Bloomberg Radio Interview

“USPS should implement peak period pricing for its parcel services” Bloomberg Radio Interview

LISTEN TO INTERVIEW

Industry Introduction

August 14, 2020

USPS Press Release

USPS will implement a time-limited price increase on all commercial domestic competitive package volume from Oct 18 thru Dec 27, 2020.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 2 months

81

Richard Smith of FedEx will get another promotion within a year

Published Source

August 23, 2019

Daily Memphian

FedEx names Richard Smith, Founder’s son, No. 2 at FedEx Express

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 5, 2020

Daily Memphian

Richard Smith now President of Americas at FedEx Express.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months

80

Indian E commerce model will partner instead of compete with local Kirana stores

Published Source

August 2018

SJC report sponsored by arm

Transformation in the Retail, Logistics and Transportation Industries

READ REPORT

Industry Introduction

May 20, 2020

Wall Street Journal

Reliance Industries via Jio will build Indian e commerce business by partnering with local Kirana store owners.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 21 Months

79

FedEx and UPS should end refund for guaranteed delivery service

Published Source

August 10, 2015

"End the Guarantee", JOC

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 23 and 26, 2020

“FedEx and UPS suspend guaranteed service in response to Service Impact of Covid19”.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years 7 months

78

LTL carriers should end dependance on honor system for pricing of shipments based on shipper provided attributes

Published Source

December 12, 2016

Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2020

Earnings reports from top LTL carriers

Carriers reporting better yield in spite no change in tonnage but due to better discipline in billing for the proper attributes of the shipments

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years

77

FedEx should integrate express and ground parcel network

Published Source

April/June 2019

JOC

“Time for FedEx to operate and compete collectively” Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 7, 2020

FedEx Press Release

FedEx Ground will start to transport and deliver day-definite residential Express shipments.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months
2019

76

Amazon will build its own delivery fleet like JD.com in China

Published Source

March 2018

DC Velocity

JD has 65,000 delivery drivers in China for its e commerce business. According to Jindel, in JD, Amazon sees the kind of company it eventually wants to be.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 19. 2019

WSJ

Amazon to add 100,000 delivery vehicles and building up its delivery fleet to become a force in the shipping industry

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Months

75

FedEx and UPS need to deliver 7 days a week including Sundays

Published Source

January 8, 2018

“Delaying Amazon’s Onslaught” Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 30, 2019

FedEx Press Release (5/30/19) and UPS Press Release (7/23/19)

FedEx and UPS to offer deliveries on Sundays effective January 2020

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 16 months
2018

74

Amazon will seek to hold down its volume with USPS/UPS/FDX at current level and use ICs for new volume growth going forward

Published Source

December 12, 2017

DC Velocity

Smaller operators' share of Amazon's total volume will rise to about 40%, but major parcel and postal carriers will only see as much volume as they do today

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 28, 2018

WSJ

Online giant says it has to build out its own services to handle the surging number of online orders that UPS, FedEx and Postal Service can’t

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Months

73

LTL carriers should embrace more straight trucks for PUD operation to service more under 500 pound shipments which represent +12% of the market and growing at a faster rate with e commerce sales

Published Source

May 14, 2014

Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2018

FMCSA data on trucks in use by LTL carriers

Number of straight trucks in use by LTL carriers is at record high

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 years
2017

72

Retailers should reduce store operations to offset cost of e-commerce fulfillment

Published Source

February 1, 1999

"E-Commerce’s Mixed Blessing", Traffic World

The increased cost of transportation to the retailers easily will be offset by reduced operating costs as expensive store operations are cut back.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 10, 2017

WSJ

Wal-Mart will open fewer stores and deepen cost-cutting efforts to free up cash for e-commerce services.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 18 Years

71

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges

Published Source

December 31, 2013

JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 19, 2017

UPS

UPS announces peak surcharges for all customers after announcing its plans to do so in February 2015

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

70

Baggage fees by airlines will generate revenue

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Industry Introduction

March 29, 2017

WSJ

"Baggage fees have funded investment in technology and baggage-handling equipment."

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 13 Years

69

Free shipping is a new norm for e-retail

Published Source

March 2016

Amazon White Paper released by SJ Consulting

Industry Introduction

February 2, 2017

Marc Lore, Walmart E-Commerce Head

"In today’s world of e-commerce, two-day shipping is table stakes…it no longer makes sense to charge for it."

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months
2016

68

The latest tech boom does not equal job creation

Published Source

September 19, 2011

"Job Search Engine", JOC

"The new tech boom does not create jobs comparable to the amount of invested capital."

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 13, 2016

"Tech Boom Creates Too Few Jobs", WSJ

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

67

LTL carriers should reduce waiver for shipper reported weight v. actual weight of shipment from 100 pounds to 5 pounds

Published Source

Nov 01, 2010

Journal of Commerce

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2016

Discussions with executives at many LTL carriers

Having built-in scales on forklifts on the freight dock and integration of the data captured and enhanced their ability to reduce the waiver of weight to under 10 pounds

SJC FORESIGHT:

66

Parcel carriers offer zone one pricing to compete

Published Source

May 4, 2015

"E-Commerce Game Changer", JOC

Parcel carriers should offer zone one pricing to capture store to door deliveries required by brick and mortar retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 11, 2016

BB&T Conference

UPS announced it offered zone 1 pricing to select shippers during peak 2015 season.

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 months
2015

65

Customized last mile delivery from access point

Published Source

2015

Press RSA Members (Aug 2015)

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2018

FetchPackage.com

FetchPackage.com introduces customized delivery from a drop off point.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

64

E-Commerce links consumers to manufacturers across borders, reducing costs

Published Source

March 2000

"E-Fulfillment Strategies for E-commerce", Air Cargo World

Internet will enable consumers to purchase products directly from manufacturers across borders at much lower cost.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

June 24, 2015

WSJ

Borders matter less and less in E-Commerce: a consumer in Chicago bought a necklace from China at 1/3 total cost compared to local store.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

63

B2B operating model used for B2C will lose ground to model designed for B2C

Published Source

February 1999

"E-commerce’s Mixed Blessings", Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

2015/2021

Traffic World

SJC FORESIGHT: 16 Years

62

Peak surcharges in place to support increased volumes for the holiday season

Published Source

December 31, 2013

"A Christmas Wish: Solving the Delivery Debacle", JOC

Parcel carriers should implement peak surcharges to support the network expansion required to handle the increase in volume during the holiday season.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 3, 2015

UPS 4Q 2014 Earnings Call

UPS will implement peak season surcharges in 2015 

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year
2013

61

Google competes with Amazon by offering same-day delivery services

Published Source

January 23, 2012

"Amazon: Retailer, or Parcel Provider?", JOC

Google may try to extend its reach into retail by offering same-day or next-day distribution services to online retailers to compete with Amazon.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 28, 2013

LA Times

Google testing same-day delivery service.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

60

Velocity Express took costly risks leading to acquisition

Published Source

October 2007

NTLA Conference Presentation

Velocity Express venture into regional parcel business is a risky strategy with negative implications.

Industry Introduction

February 2013

"TransForce Acquires Velocity Express", JOC

Velocity is sold to Transforce/Dynamex after incurring huge losses

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years
2012

59

Online orders can use same-day/next-day delivery if fulfilled locally

Published Source

March 2000

ShipEgis Prospectus

Brick and Mortar retailers can offer same/next day delivery for online orders if fulfilled from local stores

Industry Introduction

October 2012

Macy's, ToysRus, Walmart

Macy's, ToysRus, Walmart testing this concept in select markets

SJC FORESIGHT: 12 Years
2011

58

James Welch appointed new YRC CEO

Published Source

July 4, 2011

"Yes YRC Can Be Saved", JOC

James Welch is the most suitable candidate to replace retiring YRCW CEO, Bill Zollars.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

July 21, 2011

YRC Worldwide

James Welch Named CEO of YRC Worldwide

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 17 Days
2010

57

Carry-on baggage fees result in lower fares

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Separating charges for check-in & carry-on bags from passengers fare will result in lower passenger fares.

Industry Introduction

October 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines passengers fares are lower than other airlines & even total fares with baggage fees included are lower.

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Years

56

FedEx will merge Freight & National LTL into one network

Published Source

April 2009

Client Presentations

FedEx will combine Freight and National LTL into one network to handle regional and long haul service and announce by Dec 2010.

Industry Introduction

September 2010

FedEx

FedEx announced merger of FedEx Freight and National LTL effective January 2011.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

55

Airline fees for carry-on bags should be higher than for check-in bags

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Industry Introduction

August 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines passengers charges $5 more for carry-on bags than for check-in bags.

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years

54

Per-Bag fee limits carry-on baggage

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Implementing a per-bag fee to all bags could help limit overall carry-on items.

Industry Introduction

April 2010

Spirit Airlines

Spirit Airlines announced plans to charge for carry-on bags that do not fit under the seat.

SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Years
2009

53

Consumer loyalty will shift from the manufacturer to the provider

Published Source

March 2000

Air Cargo World

Consumer loyalty will shift from the manufacturer of the product to the provider/ enabler (Amazon).

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 23, 2009

WSJ

"Amazon may be benefiting more than other e-commerce sites, as consumer habits shift towards spending more time at a smaller set of websites"

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 9 Years

52

Separate baggage fees improve baggage service

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

As airlines generate separate baggage fees, fliers will benefit from improved baggage service.

Industry Introduction

September 30, 2009

WSJ

Mishandled baggage complaints drop by 21% in July 2009 versus July 2008.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

51

YRC Rebranding will enhance regional carriers’ identity

Published Source

May 2008

Traffic World

YRC can enhance regional carriers' identity via re-branding as YRC Holland, Reddaway, and New Penn.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 2009

YRC

YRC Launches yrcregional.com for three regional affiliates and drops USF name.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

50

One unifying voice needed to protect customer & lawmaker interests

Published Source

October 17, 2007

NTLA Industry Presenttion

There is a need for the industry to have one voice to protect interest with lawmakers & customers.

Industry Introduction

July 24, 2009

MCAA

MCAA and NTLA unify under MCAA & announce joint fall meeting. "We create a stronger voice for the same-day delivery industry," says MCAA President Michael Gualtieri.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

49

Changing the name “Courier” to “Same-Day” for clarity

Published Source

October 20, 2006

NTLA Industry Presentation

Changing the term from "Courier" to "Same-Day" will better portray industry's service and value.

Industry Introduction

February 2009

Dynamex

Dynamex Presentation at the 2009 BB&T Conference

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

48

YRC may integrate Yellow & Roadway under YRC National

Published Source

June 5, 2006

Transport Topics

"YRC may integrate Yellow and Roadway networks into one longhaul operation branded as YRC National, and bring all regional operating units...under one operating company."

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

January 2009

YRC Worldwide

YRC brand name introduced for integrated Yellow/Roadway network

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years
2008

47

Airline baggage option to ship via parcel carriers

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Airlines should provide the option to ship bags via parcel carriers to by-pass airport security and enhance airline profitability.

Industry Introduction

October 2008

United Airlines

United Airlines has partnered with FedEx to offer baggage service for a fee.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

46

Check-in/Security lines move faster with less passenger carry-ons

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

As passengers gain financially by leaving unnecessary items at home, check-in/security lines will move faster.

Industry Introduction

September 9, 2008

WSJ

Complaints to TSA about problems at screening checkpoints or baggage damage have declined by 7% in June/July, versus complaints issued in 2007.

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

45

Charging for airline baggage will result in fewer bags overall

Published Source

October 2003

White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Charges for bags will encourage passengers to be more judicious with items carried and thus fewer bags.

Industry Introduction

September 2008

American Airlines

American Airlines reports customers checked 1 million fewer bags than in July of 2007

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

44

UPS agrees to unionize its LTL workers

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

UPS will cooperate with Teamsters on unionization of its LTL workers to reach an early and favorable contract for its parcel operations.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 2008

UPS Freight

Teamsters has signed up 11,100 of 15,000 UPS Freight workers to join the union.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

43

Airlines should separate baggage charges from airfare

Published Source

October 2003

ABC TV, White Paper & Visit with members of U.S. Congress

Airlines should un-bundle airfare with a charge for bags transported.

Industry Introduction

May 2008

American Airlines

American Airlines introduces $15 fee for first checked bag

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

42

DHL should partner with USPS for last-mile deliveries

Published Source

2005

Client Report

DHL should outsource last mile delivery of low density remote zip codes to USPS.

Industry Introduction

May 2008

DHL

DHL announces partnership with USPS for last mile delivery as part of its restructuring plan.

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

41

The fewer airlines, the better

Published Source

January 2007

"Morning Call", CNBC TV

There are too many airlines - mergers are needed.

WATCH VIDEO

Industry Introduction

2008-2011

Delta & Northwest merge (2008), United & Continental merge (2010), Southwest & Airtran merger (2011)

SJC FORESIGHT: 1-4 Years
2007

40

YRC will control the direction of the NMFA

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

YRC will control the direction of the NMFA as if it was a YRC Freight Agreement.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

December 2007 - January 2008

YRC Worldwide

YRC agreement with Teamsters in Dec 2007 and ABF acceptance of it in Jan 2008.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

39

UPS appoints new CEO

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

UPS to announce a new CEO shortly after turning 100.

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

October 15, 2007

UPS Press Release

"On October 15, 2007, United Parcel Service, Inc. (“UPS”) announced that Michael L. Eskew will retire as UPS’s chief executive officer and chairman of the board effective January 1, 2008."

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months

38

Teamsters & UPS could agree on new 5-year contract

Published Source

December 11, 2006

Traffic World

A new 5-year contract could be agreed upon between UPS & Teamsters by August 28, 2007

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 30, 2007

Agreement reached between Teamsters & UPS on September 30, 2007

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 Months

37

YRC Worldwide should combine Yellow & Roadway linehaul/terminals

Published Source

May 2005

Client Presentation

YRCW should combine Yellow & Roadway linehaul/terminals for operational cost savings.

Industry Introduction

February 15, 2007

BB&T 2007 Conference

YRC CEO comments at BB&T Conference regarding combining Yellow & Roadway linehaul/terminals

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year
2006

36

FedEx will expand its transportation services

Published Source

May 2003

Industry Presentation

FedEx will expand its transportation services.

Industry Introduction

June 2006

FedEx

FedEx expands its LTL operation with Watkins acquisition.

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years

35

UPS & USPS should collaborate, not combative

Published Source

May 2003

Client Presentation

Industry Introduction

June 2006

UPS

UPS gets $100 million a year contract to fly USPS mail.

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years
2004

34

Battle for retail customers heats up

Published Source

May 2003

Industry Presentation

Competition for retail customers is intensifying.

Industry Introduction

Late 2003 - Early 2004

FedEx acquires Kinko's for $2.4 billion, Dec. 2003; DHL launches a Preferred Program with 1,100 AMPC stores, Nov. 2004

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

33

Proactive notification on service failure in the parcel industry

Published Source

2000

ShipMatrix Alert

Industry Introduction

2004

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years
2003

32

Changes in FedEx/Kinko’s relationship for retail market penetration

Published Source

June 2002

Client Document

Industry Introduction

December 2003

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

31

Surcharge for commercial ground services to rural zips

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

November 2003

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

30

Yellow will take the #3 spot on the Big 3 Transportation List behind UPS and FedEx

Published Source

April 29, 1997

Client Presentation

Industry Introduction

July 8, 2003

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

29

DHL will offer one-stop shopping for comprehensive global logistics services

Published Source

February 1999

Client Report

Industry Introduction

March 2003

DPWN STAR Program

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

28

DHL will acquire Airborne for stronger presence in US domestic parcel market

Published Source

February 1999

Client Report

Industry Introduction

2003

DHL Express

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years

27

Parcel rates increase to offset labor costs

Published Source

July 17, 2002

WSJ

UPS parcel rates will increase by larger amounts to offset higher labor costs of 2002 Teamster contract.

Industry Introduction

2003- 2006

2003-2006 rates +4.7% vs. 4.1% per yr for 1999-2002. while Domestic Av. Rev/ Pkg. +3.8% vs. 2.5% per yr

SJC FORESIGHT: 1-4 Years

26

Recognizing the importance of shipment visibility in the parcel industry

Published Source

1999

ShipMatrix Visibility Tools

Industry Introduction

2002

Quantum View & Insight

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years
2002

25

Amazon opportunity lies in becoming the “Wal-Mart” of cyberspace

Published Source

March 2000

Air Cargo World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

November 2002

WSJ

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

24

UPS should guarantee residential ground deliveries

Published Source

January 2000

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

August 2002

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

23

UPS will unveil its retail strategy involving Mail Boxes, Etc. after Teamsters contract is approved

Published Source

January 2002

Client Report

Industry Introduction

August 2002

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 7 Months

22

UPS/Teamsters will reach agreement by mid-July

Published Source

January 2002

Client & Media Communication

Industry Introduction

July 16, 2002

UPS/Teamsters

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT: 6 Months
2001

21

Benefits of co-locating home delivery centers with B2B service facility

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

September 2001

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

20

More LTL shipments will shift to parcel carriers

Published Source

July 15, 1996

Transport Topics

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 2001

Morgan Stanley Survey

SJC FORESIGHT: 5 Years

19

Kozmo.com’s business model will not survive

Published Source

March 2000

E-Biz Conference

Industry Introduction

April 2001

Kozmo.com closes

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

18

Surcharge for commercial express services to rural zips

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 2001

FedEx

SJC FORESIGHT: 4 Years
2000

17

Deutsche Post will buy controlling interest in DHL International Ltd

Published Source

February 1999

Client Report

Industry Introduction

September 2000

Deutsche Post buys controlling interest in DHL International, Ltd.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

16

Guaranteed on-time arrival for passenger airline service

Published Source

November 1998

Patent Application

Industry Introduction

May 2000

BizTravel.com

Passenger airline service is guaranteed for on-time arrival.

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

15

Evening delivery times for residential customers

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 2000

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

14

Weekend service for residential deliveries by private parcel carriers

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 2000

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

13

Need to guarantee Ground residential parcel service

Published Source

February 1999

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

March 2000

FedEx HDS

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

12

Importance of logistics/ fulfillment to e-tailing

Published Source

March 1999

Air Cargo World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

January 2000

SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Months

11

Need to integrate marketing/ technology of FedEx/RPS

Published Source

October 1997

KDKA-TV

Interview with KDKA-TV.

Industry Introduction

January 2000

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years
1999

10

UPS will become a publicly traded company prior to December 1999

Published Source

August 1998

Client Report

Industry Introduction

July 1999

SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months

9

Automatic refund for guaranteed LTL service failure

Published Source

March 1998

Client Report

Industry Introduction

February 1999

SJC FORESIGHT: 11 Months

8

Surcharge for residential addresses to rural zip codes

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

February 1999

UPS

READ ARTICLE
SJC FORESIGHT:

7

Need for DSCF/DDU rates for Parcel Post by USPS

Published Source

1991

RPS Memo

Industry Introduction

January 1999

SJC FORESIGHT: 8 Years
1998

6

Need to guarantee ground parcel service

Published Source

1988 & 1997

RPS Memo (1988) & Traffic World (1997)

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

May 1998

UPS

SJC FORESIGHT: 10 Years (1988) & 1 Year (1997)

5

Extended transit time for delivery of ground parcels to rural zip codes

Published Source

January 1997

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

1998

SJC FORESIGHT: 1 Year

4

Push towards greater increases in accessorial charges by parcel carriers

Published Source

July 1996

Transport Topics

Industry Introduction

1998

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years

3

Need for LTL carriers to offer guarantee on STD services

Published Source

1996

Analysts' Conference Calls

Industry Introduction

1998

SJC FORESIGHT: 2 Years
1997

2

Viking Freight – Virtual Region strategy shortcomings

Published Source

January 1996

Traffic World

READ ARTICLE

Industry Introduction

April 1997

SJC FORESIGHT: 9 Months
1996

1

FedEx is likely to experience more intense competition through bundling of services

Published Source

June 19, 1993

Letter to Client

Industry Introduction

1996

UPS

UPS Express & Ground Parcel bundling

SJC FORESIGHT: 3 Years